The economy is crumbling. What will a recovery look like?

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London (CNN Business)Mass layoffs tied to the coronavirus pandemic are expected to spark a surge in the number of Americans who filed for their first week of unemployment benefits — the latest sign that the US economy is in for a deep recession as shutdowns aimed at containing the virus continue.

The data: Economists surveyed by Reuters estimate that 3.5 million people filed initial claims last week. That would top the all-time high set the previous week, when nearly 3.3 million Americans filed initial claims. The pre-coronavirus record was 695,000 claims in October 1982.
Some Wall Street firms expect an even bigger shock. Goldman Sachs estimates that 6 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims for the week ending March 28.

    And it’s not the only dire prediction. Bank of America thinks initial unemployment claims jumped to 5.5 million, while Morgan Stanley’s estimate is nearly 4.5 million.
    Investors will get another indication of the damage done to the US labor market on Friday, when the government publishes its jobs report for March. But Bank of America economist Joseph Song said the real trauma will be revealed later. He expects the jobs report for April to show “unprecedented” losses and an unemployment rate in the double digits.

    Song attributes the expected spike in initial claims last week to a few factors. Big companies have reported layoffs or indefinite furloughs since the last report. And the $2 trillion US relief package passed late last week made unemployment benefits more generous, while extending benefits to self-employed and gig economy workers who weren’t covered before.
    On the radar: Economists and investors are also keeping an eye on any revisions to the previous week’s figure.
    Even though it set a record, the last report may have been artificially low due to a backlog of benefit applications, Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told me. There’s anecdotal evidence that “a lot of people who tried to file [claims] weren’t able to, because phone lines were overloaded,” she said.

    Oil jumps on hopes of a Saudi-Russia truce

    Optimism that Saudi Arabia and Russia will call off their price war has sent crude prices higher — though it’s not clear that two of the world’s top oil producers are actually weighing a truce.
    The world could soon run out of space to store oil. That may plunge prices below zero
    The latest: President Donald Trump said during a press conference on Wednesday that he’d spoken with the leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia and thinks “that they will work it out over the next few days.”
    “It’s just too simple not to be able to,” he said.
    Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have shot up 10.4% to more than $27 per barrel as a result. US oil has rallied 10% to $22.35 per barrel.
    A deal would bring welcome relief to the battered oil market. Prices collapsed after a pact between Saudi Arabia and Russia to limit production broke down, exacerbating a supply glut as thirst for oil dries up.
    The situation is so dire that the world could soon run out of room to store all the unneeded barrels of oil, my CNN Business colleague Matt Egan reports.
    Whether Saudi Arabia and Russia can come to terms remains to be seen. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters Thursday that the country has not discussed the oil market situation with Saudi Arabia but does not rule this out.

    WeWork founder misses out on $1 billion

    SoftBank is walking away from a sizable chunk of its WeWork rescue package, which included a nearly $1 billion windfall for ousted founder Adam Neumann, my CNN Business colleague Sherisse Pham reports.
    Details: The Japanese tech company has backed out of a plan to buy $3 billion worth of shares in the coworking startup from existing shareholders and investors, according to statements from SoftBank and a special committee of WeWork’s board. Shares in SoftBank closed up 2.5% in Tokyo following the announcement.
    The about face cuts deep for Neumann — the October agreement had included an offer to buy up to $975 million worth of the WeWork founder’s shares — and is further evidence that SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son is stepping back from his trademark high-risk investment strategy after the company’s shares cratered earlier this year.
    And it’s a major blow to WeWork, which has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic after its botched IPO left it on the brink of insolvency. Many cities where it operates have shut down for weeks on end. It still has to pay long-term leases, even if businesses squeezed by the outbreak cancel contracts.

    Up next

    Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reports earnings before US markets open. Chewy (CHWY) follows after the close.
    Also today:

      • Initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending March 28 post at 8:30 a.m. ET.

      Coming tomorrow: How much did the US unemployment rate tick up in March? Economists surveyed by Reuters think it rose to 3.8% from a record low of 3.5%.
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