MORNING BID-Weighing in on the T-debate
June 24 – A look at the day ahead from Danilo Masoni.
Post-Fed market action hasn’t exactly been straightforward and one week after the bank kicked off tapering talk and signalled a 2023 rate hike investors are still trying to make full sense of it.
The hawkish tilt – at face value negative for tech – has boosted the Nasdaq whereas Europe’s cyclically tilted STOXX 600 has shifted into reverse gear, erasing its recent outperformance relative to Wall Street.
So while the Nasdaq closed at new record highs overnight and is set for more gains later, European stock futures point to a mildly positive start after losses yesterday in spite of euro zone PMI surveys beating expectations to hit a 15-year high.
Equity markets are reflecting the prospects that eventually economic growth will slow down amid less central bank support, while the chance of a rate hike has pushed short-dated U.S. rates higher, flattening the yield curve.
So while investors assess Fed’s policy shift, the focus today moves to the Bank of England with the pound holding below a two-year high hit earlier this month.
No change is expected but sterling bulls will be eager to know if any other policymaker joins Chief Economist Andy Haldane to scale back the bond-buying programme at his final meeting.
Finally Germany’s IFO will also be eyed for more insight into the strength of business climate in Europe’s No.1 economy.
In corporate news, private equity firm Blackstone has sweetened its buyout offer for St. Modwen Properties to 1.25 billion pounds.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:
* Bank of England policy meeting 1100 GMT
* ECB speakers: board members Panetta and Schnabel
* Netherlands, Spain Q1 GDP data
* Business climate surveys: Germany, France.
* U.S. data: May durable goods, Q1 GDP, Core PCE prices
* Emerging markets: Philippines, Mexico rate decisions
* U.S. 7-year note auction
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