Why winning in Florida is a must for the Trump campaign
- If President Donald Trump is to win a second term as president, his main pathway is through Florida.
- "In our simulations, when Trump wins, he carries Florida 90% of the time," said Decision Desk HQ Director of Data Science, Scott Tranter.
- According to forecasting from DDHQ, former Vice President Joe Biden has a 63% chance of defeating Trump in Florida. Recent polling from October 27 to October 31 by the New York Times Upshot and Siena College estimates Biden has a 3 percentage point edge.
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Both campaigns have set their sights on Florida — and for good reason.
According to Decision Desk HQ Director of Data Science and Race Call Team, Scott Tranter, a Trump victory in Florida is imperative to winning a second term in office.
"In our simulations, when Trump wins, he carries Florida 90% of the time," Tranter said.
Election forecasting models work by determining a state of the race based on polling and other input data about race fundamentals, and then by randomly simulating the outcome of the election a certain number of times. Of all of the simulations that yielded a victory for President Donald Trump, he won without the Sunshine State only in 10% of them.
Florida has long been known as a major swing state in the presidential election — the state has flipped which party it votes for in the presidential election six different times since 1972. Of all of the states which Trump flipped from blue to red in 2016, Florida has the most electoral votes: 29.
In the absence of a win in Florida, Trump's path to 270 electoral votes gets harder.
"The mathematical path to a Trump victory without Florida is straightforward," said Tranter. "Trump can win by simply repeating his 2016 map, but with only Florida defecting to Biden. If Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all remain with Trump, then his remaining 2016 map is enough to get him to 270 electoral votes."
If Trump loses Pennsylvania and Florida, then he must count on victories in states like Colorado or Virginia: two states which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and where Trump currently trails by over ten points in the polls. Hence, the importance of Florida.
According to further forecasting from DDHQ, Biden has a 63% chance of defeating Trump in Florida. Recent polling from October 27 to October 31 by the New York Times Upshot and Siena College estimates Biden has a 3 percentage point advantage.
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