U.S. Covid Deaths May Sustain Near-Record Pace Through January

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Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. are likely to maintain a near-record pace at least through the month as mounting hospitalizations offset any positive effect from the halting start to inoculations.

The U.S. will end January averaging about 2,600 deaths a day, according to the latest forecastupdated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wednesday, a figure based on projections from 36 different models.

Cumulatively, the U.S. is expected to surpass 400,000 deaths around the time that Joe Biden is inaugurated as president on Jan. 20. It will hit 420,908 by Jan. 30, the farthest date in the projection, according to the CDC model.

The U.S. is rolling out the vaccine to vulnerable populations as virus cases and hospitalizations have never been higher. So far, only about 5.5 million doses have been administered, according to Bloomberg’s vaccinetracker. Although viral prevalence has been dropping in the Midwest, the trajectory remains alarming in every other region.

The U.S. added 248,978 cases Wednesday, pushing the seven-day average to 222,100, close to a high, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The numbers are rising after the holidays temporarily reduced laboratory staffing and artificially depressed the numbers.

There have been about 361,900 Covid deaths in the U.S. as of early Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins data.

According to Covid Tracking Project data,

  • Arizona, Nevada, Alabama, California and Georgia now have the most people hospitalized per capita with the virus.
  • Among Census Bureau regions, the West has the most average daily cases per million in the past week, with 777.

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