More than half of early voters in key battleground states are women

  • Of the more than 96 million votes already cast in the 2020 election, more than half in battleground states have been from women.
  • President Donald Trump has consistently performed poorly with women ever since taking office, with the 2020 election on track to see the largest disparity on record between how men and women vote.
  • While Trump was able to win more white women voters than Hillary Clinton in 2016 — somewhere between 52% and 47%, depending on the methodology of exit polls and other surveys — the gender gap has ballooned since then, and was a major factor behind the Democrats' ability to retake the House majority in the 2018 midterms.
  • Biden's average lead over Trump among women is now at 19 percentage points, according to an average of the last ten national surveys tracked by Rutgers University.
  • In Pennsylvania, women make up 57% of the early vote electorate so far, while that total is at 55% in Texas and Florida, according to Decision Desk HQ, Insider's election night partner.
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A gender gap has emerged in early voting when it comes to key battleground states, according to data from the US Elections Project and Decision Desk HQ.

More than 95 million votes have already been cast in the 2020 election, with some states approaching or even exceeding their vote totals from 2016 already. 

The gender split in early voting could spell trouble for President Donald Trump, given the gender gap that plagued the GOP in the 2018 midterms and gave Democrats a new House majority.

In 2016, Trump won women by somewhere between 52% and 47%, depending on the methodology of exit polls and other surveys. According to the Pew Research Center, eligible women voters outvoted their male counterparts by 4 percentage points.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading among women by an average of 19 percentage points, according to an average of the most recent 10 national polls tracked by researchers at Rutgers University's Center for American Women and Politics. 

This could make a difference in several key states, such as Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida: four states which Trump won in 2016 but could flip for Democrats in 2020. 

According to Insider polling, rural women are much more likely to support Trump than Biden, about on par with rural men. The suburbs, however, are a different story. While suburban men have very little preference for president, suburban women appear to be supporting Biden at higher rates than men.

Trump won the suburbs over Hillary Clinton by 4 points, according to exit polls in 2016. If Biden can flip the suburbs back to the Democrats, it may be his ticket to victory.

In October, Trump appeared to realize his polling dilemma and made a plea to female voters at a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, saying "Suburban women, will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?"

Women make up 57% of the early vote electorate so far in Pennsylvania. That total is at 55% in Texas and Florida, according to DDHQ.

Though his campaign may try, it may be simply mathematically too late for Trump to win over enough remaining undecided female voters to make a difference. With one day until Election Day, Americans have already hit over 70% of 2016's total vote count with over 96 million votes already cast.

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